Sunday, October 28, 2007

Numbers Do Not Lie.People Do.

Today's question is: Do Numbers Lie?

Picture number 1 is a screenshot of page 6-7 of the JPEPA Joint Coordinating Team Report.The list macro-economic studies does not include any study done by a Filipino.
However, our lead negotiator, Thomas Aquino, in his own slide found below, suddenly presented figures from a study by Caesar Cororaton.
The answer to the question of the day: numbers do not lie but people do.

1. 0.09% does not appear in Cororaton's paper. 0.009% does but with the following conclusion:

The Gini coefficient in the scenario with FTA increases slightly to 0.46511, or 0.145 percent from the base, which indicates further worsening of income inequality. These effects are largely driven by the contraction in agriculture and the expansion of industry and the adverse effects on factor prices in agriculture.” (emphasis supplied)”

2. Did the Philippine negotiators conduct a study to check the veracity of the Kawasaki numbers? After all, our own gov't research group discusses the fact that Japan's previous stance of being against FTA changed under threat of ASEAN domination by China. The Philippines' own study provides:

Wait, why isn't Kyota's prediction not on Aquino's slide? Why should it be? 0.04% is too small. You can't convince these poor Filipinos with 0.04%.Let's just post the bigger numbers. It will be cuter on the slide.The Senators will be impressed, amazed,and totally convinced to vote for the JPEPA.

3. Cororaton and Kawasaki predict amazing job increase with the JPEPA?No, friends, they don't.Their papers do not discuss effect of the JPEPA on job generation.

4. What about FDI increase? Again, never discussed in the papers that simply limited the study to the effect of tariff reduction on goods.

5. If our own Filipino researcher, Cororaton, did in fact make a study, why isn't his paper mentioned in the listing when in fact the report states that the Philippines formed an independent research group to study the JPEPA? Maybe because the JPEPA won't be so good for the entire country after all. It will be disastrous for agriculture. So what???! Well, friends, in case the government has forgotten, the Philippines is still largely agricultural. And that little Constitutional mandate in Article 12 still talks about "sound agricultural development."

These are official records. Official materials.

The future of this nation cannot and should never be based on lies.


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